Key Takeaways
- Quantum computers will break RSA and ECC—migration must start now
- ML-KEM (Kyber) replaces key exchange; ML-DSA (Dilithium) replaces signatures
- Hybrid TLS combines classical + PQ algorithms for safe transition
- Chrome, Edge, and major CDNs already support hybrid PQ TLS
- "Harvest now, decrypt later" makes today's data vulnerable to future attacks
What is Post-Quantum Cryptography?
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) refers to cryptographic algorithms designed to be secure against attacks by both classical computers and quantum computers. Unlike current algorithms like RSA and elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), which rely on mathematical problems that quantum computers can solve efficiently, PQC algorithms are based on problems believed to be hard for both classical and quantum computers.
The security of the internet—including every HTTPS connection, every SSL/TLS certificate, and every encrypted email—depends on cryptographic algorithms that will eventually be broken by quantum computers. This isn't a distant threat; it's a present concern that security professionals worldwide are actively addressing.
In August 2024, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) published the first three post-quantum cryptographic standards after an 8-year evaluation process. These standards—ML-KEM, ML-DSA, and SLH-DSA—represent the foundation of quantum-safe cryptography that will protect the internet for decades to come.
For a deeper understanding of how current encryption works and why it's vulnerable, see our guides on How SSL Works and What is PKI.
The Quantum Threat to Current Encryption
How Quantum Computers Break Classical Cryptography
Current public-key cryptography relies on two mathematical problems:
- Integer Factorization (RSA): Difficulty of factoring large numbers into prime factors. RSA-2048 uses a 617-digit number.
- Discrete Logarithm (ECDH, ECDSA): Difficulty of computing logarithms in finite fields and elliptic curve groups.
These problems are computationally infeasible for classical computers—breaking RSA-2048 would take billions of years. However, Shor's algorithm, running on a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, can solve both problems in polynomial time. A quantum computer with approximately 4,000 stable, error-corrected qubits could break RSA-2048 in hours.
The "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" Threat
Even though large-scale quantum computers don't exist yet, a critical threat is already active: adversaries can record encrypted traffic today and store it for decryption when quantum computers become available. This is known as "harvest now, decrypt later" (HNDL) or "store now, decrypt later" (SNDL).
Data at Risk from HNDL Attacks
- •Healthcare records — Patient data has decades-long confidentiality requirements
- •Financial transactions — Banking and investment data with long-term sensitivity
- •Government communications — Classified information with extended protection periods
- •Legal documents — Attorney-client privilege and litigation materials
- •Intellectual property — Trade secrets and R&D data with lasting value
If your website handles any data that should remain confidential for 10+ years, enabling post-quantum TLS today protects against future decryption by quantum computers.
Timeline Estimates
| Milestone | Conservative | Aggressive |
|---|---|---|
| Quantum computer breaks RSA-2048 | 2035-2040 | 2030-2033 |
| Migration deadline (NSA guidance) | 2035 | 2030 |
| Hybrid PQ TLS widely deployed | 2026-2028 | 2025 |
| Pure PQ TLS (no classical) | 2035+ | 2030+ |
NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards
After an 8-year international competition evaluating 82 candidate algorithms, NIST published three post-quantum cryptography standards in August 2024:
FIPS 203
ML-KEM
Key Encapsulation Mechanism for secure key exchange
FIPS 204
ML-DSA
Digital Signature Algorithm for authentication
FIPS 205
SLH-DSA
Hash-based signatures for maximum security assurance
All three standards are based on mathematical problems believed to be resistant to quantum attacks. ML-KEM and ML-DSA use lattice-based cryptography, while SLH-DSA uses hash-based cryptography.
Understanding ML-KEM (Key Encapsulation)
ML-KEM (Module-Lattice Key Encapsulation Mechanism), formerly known as CRYSTALS-Kyber, replaces the key exchange portion of TLS. When you visit an HTTPS website, key exchange establishes the shared secret used to encrypt your session. Currently, this uses ECDH (Elliptic Curve Diffie-Hellman), which quantum computers can break.
How ML-KEM Works
ML-KEM is based on the Module Learning With Errors (MLWE) problem—finding a secret vector when given noisy linear combinations. This problem is believed to be hard for both classical and quantum computers.
1. Server generates ML-KEM key pair (public key ~1,184 bytes) 2. Server sends public key to client during TLS handshake 3. Client encapsulates: creates shared secret + ciphertext 4. Client sends ciphertext to server (~1,088 bytes) 5. Server decapsulates: recovers shared secret from ciphertext 6. Both parties now share identical 256-bit secret for AES encryption
ML-KEM Security Levels
| Parameter Set | Security | Public Key | Ciphertext | Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ML-KEM-512 | 128-bit | 800 bytes | 768 bytes | Constrained devices |
| ML-KEM-768 | 192-bit ★ | 1,184 bytes | 1,088 bytes | Recommended |
| ML-KEM-1024 | 256-bit | 1,568 bytes | 1,568 bytes | Maximum security |
For comparison, X25519 (current standard) has 32-byte public keys and 32-byte shared secrets. ML-KEM-768 keys are ~37x larger, but this is acceptable for most TLS use cases where bandwidth isn't severely constrained.
Understanding ML-DSA (Digital Signatures)
ML-DSA (Module-Lattice Digital Signature Algorithm), formerly CRYSTALS-Dilithium, replaces RSA and ECDSA signatures used for certificate authentication and data integrity. Every SSL certificate contains a digital signature from the Certificate Authority—these will eventually need to use quantum-safe algorithms.
How ML-DSA Works
ML-DSA is also based on the Module Learning With Errors problem, combined with the "Fiat-Shamir with Aborts" paradigm to create a secure signature scheme. The algorithm:
- Sign: Create a signature proving you possess the private key
- Verify: Confirm signature is valid using only the public key
- Non-repudiation: Signer cannot deny creating the signature
ML-DSA Security Levels
| Parameter Set | Security | Public Key | Signature |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML-DSA-44 | 128-bit | 1,312 bytes | 2,420 bytes |
| ML-DSA-65 | 192-bit ★ | 1,952 bytes | 3,293 bytes |
| ML-DSA-87 | 256-bit | 2,592 bytes | 4,595 bytes |
ML-DSA signatures are significantly larger than ECDSA (64 bytes) or RSA-2048 (256 bytes). This impacts certificate sizes and TLS handshake data, but modern networks handle this well.
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Hybrid Cryptography: The Transition Strategy
Hybrid cryptography combines classical and post-quantum algorithms in a single protocol. This approach provides security guarantees from both algorithm families:
- If the classical algorithm (ECDH) is broken by quantum computers → PQ algorithm (ML-KEM) still protects
- If the PQ algorithm has undiscovered weaknesses → classical algorithm provides backup
- Both must be broken simultaneously to compromise the connection
X25519Kyber768 (Current Hybrid Standard)
The most widely deployed hybrid key exchange combines X25519 (classical ECDH) with ML-KEM-768 (post-quantum). This is identified in TLS as X25519Kyber768 or similar names.
Shared Secret = HKDF(X25519_shared_secret || ML-KEM-768_shared_secret) Both components must be compromised to break the exchange: - X25519: 32-byte keys, ~128-bit classical security - ML-KEM-768: ~1,184-byte keys, ~192-bit quantum security Combined: Protection against all known classical AND quantum attacks
Browser and Server Support
| Platform | Hybrid PQ Support | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Chrome 116+ | Enabled | X25519Kyber768 by default |
| Edge 116+ | Enabled | Same as Chrome (Chromium-based) |
| Firefox | In Progress | Experimental support |
| Safari | Planned | Expected in future releases |
| Cloudflare | Enabled | All sites, automatic |
| AWS CloudFront | Available | Opt-in configuration |
| OpenSSL 3.2+ | Available | Requires configuration |
Preparing Your Website for Quantum-Safe TLS
Step 1: Assess Your Current Configuration
Use our SSL Checker to verify your current TLS configuration. Note your:
- TLS version (should be 1.2 or 1.3)
- Key exchange algorithms (ECDHE, DHE)
- Certificate signature algorithm (RSA, ECDSA)
- Server software version (OpenSSL, BoringSSL, etc.)
Step 2: Update Your TLS Library
Post-quantum TLS requires updated cryptographic libraries:
# Check current OpenSSL version openssl version # For PQ support, you need: # OpenSSL 3.2+ with oqs-provider # OR BoringSSL with PQ support # OR AWS-LC (LibCrypto)
Step 3: Enable Hybrid Key Exchange
For Nginx with OpenSSL 3.2+:
# nginx.conf ssl_ecdh_curve X25519Kyber768:X25519:P-256; # This prioritizes hybrid PQ, falling back to classical for older clients
For Apache with OpenSSL 3.2+:
# httpd-ssl.conf SSLOpenSSLConfCmd Groups X25519Kyber768:X25519:P-256
Step 4: Use a CDN with PQ Support
The easiest path to quantum-safe TLS is using a CDN that handles it automatically:
- Cloudflare: Automatic PQ TLS for all plans
- AWS CloudFront: Available with configuration
- Google Cloud CDN: PQ support in development
Testing Post-Quantum TLS Support
Test Your Server
# Test with OpenSSL (if PQ-enabled) openssl s_client -connect yourdomain.com:443 -groups X25519Kyber768 # Look for output containing: # Server Temp Key: X25519Kyber768 # Test with curl (verbose) curl -v https://yourdomain.com 2>&1 | grep -i "SSL connection" # Check negotiated cipher openssl s_client -connect yourdomain.com:443 2>&1 | grep "Cipher is"
Browser Testing
In Chrome DevTools (F12) → Security tab, check the "Connection" section for the negotiated key exchange. If it shows "X25519Kyber768" or similar, your connection is using hybrid post-quantum TLS.
Timeline and Migration Roadmap
2024-2025: Early Adoption
Enable hybrid PQ TLS on servers. Major browsers support it. CDNs offer PQ by default.
2026-2028: Mainstream Adoption
Hybrid PQ becomes default. CAs begin issuing PQ-signed certificates. Legacy systems upgraded.
2030-2035: Full Transition
Pure PQ TLS becomes standard. Classical algorithms deprecated. Complete ecosystem migration.
Action Items for Today
- 1.Inventory your cryptographic dependencies (TLS libraries, certificates)
- 2.Test hybrid PQ TLS in staging/development environments
- 3.Plan upgrade path for OpenSSL/server software
- 4.Consider CDN with automatic PQ support for immediate protection
- 5.Monitor NIST and CA/Browser Forum announcements
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Frequently Asked Questions
Continue Learning
IBM Quantum SSL Guide
Configure SSL/TLS for IBM Quantum Platform with PQ support.
What is PKI?
Understand the trust infrastructure behind SSL certificates.
How SSL Works
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Free SSL Tools Guide
Use our SSL tools to verify your certificate configuration.